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Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ Mission to China
By Erin Robinson
A panel featuring Vago Muradian, Editor of Defense News, Phillip Saunders, Director of the Center for Study of Chinese Military Affairs at National Defense University, and James Mulvenon, President of Defense Group, Inc.’s Intelligence Division agreed that the potential impacts of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ trip to China are limited, and pointed out that the current framework of U.S.-China military to military relations is not sufficient to handle a crisis in the region. The January 10th panel was moderated by Drew Thompson, The Nixon Center’s Director of China Studies and Starr Senior Fellow.
Vago Muradian argued that China has been trying to force U.S. allies to choose between China and the U.S. Given American entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. was seen as disengaged in the region and the Chinese attempted to capitalize on that perceived lack of attention. However, he pointed out, the Chinese overplayed their hand at the ASEAN summit and, with their aggressive claiming of territory especially in the South China Sea, have begun to drive other Asian countries back towards the U.S.
Phillip Saunders expanded on Muradian’s comments; pointing out that the Obama administration had been hoping for a cooperative partner in China, but that China missed an opportunity to effectively engage the new American president. Following the financial crisis in particular, the Chinese assessed that the international balance of power was shifting in their favor, and acted on these perceptions. This has led to a more internationally assertive stance, described as, “tone-deaf diplomacy focused on narrow Chinese interests,” fueled by a nationalistic press, bullying behavior abroad, and military commanders speaking publicly and adversarially.
All three participants shared a level of pessimism regarding the potential for a breakthrough during either Secretary Gates’ trip or the upcoming Obama-Hu summit. A robust and sustained military to military dialogue does not seem to be forthcoming from the Chinese and that puts the situation at increasing risk for miscalculation as the Chinese military expands its presence internationally and runs an ever-higher risk of interacting with the U.S. military abroad.
Muradian discussed the effects of recent Chinese advances, including force growth, fruitful efforts in their space program, airplane design, anti-satellite capabilities, and other technological improvements, which have allowed the Chinese military to become more confident, but have also placed them at greater risk of running afoul of the U.S. military abroad. This underscores the importance of Secretary Gates’ trip, which aims to increase mutual understanding and communication between the two militaries and establish a durable relationship.
Saunders pointed out that there is a difference in what the U.S. wants to get out of military to military relations versus what China believes they can gain from such contacts. A key reason the Chinese have chosen this moment to restart military to military talks is most likely pressure from China’s civilian leadership who recognize that the absence of military relations would detract from the impending Obama-Hu summit. Because President Hu expressed a desire for more military to military contact, the PLA must at least appear to be making an effort.
James Mulvenon pointed out that the U.S. military has been extremely lucky thus far that there have been no major crises involving the U.S. or Chinese militaries that have resulted in a major loss of life, as there is no real confidence in the protocols the U.S. government has with the Chinese for handling such issues. The stated U.S. goal for Secretary Gates’ trip is sustained, reliable and continuous military to military relations, which reflects the U.S. government’s frustration with the current situation in which military to military relations are held hostage to various crises. The Chinese, Mulvenon argued, set up an escape hatch in their requirements for rebuilding military to military relations, including cessation of arms sales to Taiwan, and no more U.S. reconnaissance within the Chinese exclusive economic zone, which are extremely unlikely to occur. According to Mulvenon, this reinforces the impression that the civilian leadership is forcing a reluctant military to participate in dialogue with the United States.
You can watch the entire event on CSPAN by clicking here. Video of the event is also available here on our YouTube site.
For further reading see:
"Asia's Role in the Global Economy," Brittany Ell, The Nixon Center, December 1, 2010
"Think Again: China's Military," Foreign Policy, March/April 2010
"Border Burdens: China’s Response to the Myanmar Refugee Crisis," China Security, Fall 2009
"America and China diverge on a shared Korean goal," Financial Times, December 8 2009
"The Geopolitics of Cross-Strait Disaster Relief," China Brief, September 10, 2009
Flood Across the Border: China's Disaster Relief Operations and Potential Response to a North Korean Refugee Crisis, US-Korea Institute, 2009
"The Real Bridge to Nowhere; China's foiled North Korea Strategy," USIP, 2009
China's Health Care Reform Redux, CSIS, 2009
Flood Across the Border: China's Disaster Relief Operations and Potential Response to a North Korean Refugee Crisis, US-Korea Institute, 2009
China's Health-Care Challenge, Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2009
Video Links:
Asia's Role in the Global Economy 1 December 2010
The Battle for Hearts and Minds 7 October 2010
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