CRANK Call | June 2025
CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs).
June 2025 Highlights
Russia and China condemn Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran but offer limited support
When Israel launched military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and other targets on June 13, both China and Russia publicly condemned the action and convened an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council later that day. However, neither country appears willing to provide significant material support. Iranian officials have expressed disappointment with the limited backing received from both Russia and China.
Russia had previously offered to mediate negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran in early June, stating it would be willing to take and safeguard Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile if it would help facilitate an agreement with Washington. However, the strategic cooperation agreement ratified earlier this year between Russia and Iran included no mutual defense commitments—unlike Russia’s more robust agreement with North Korea.
Russia and Israel have maintained a relatively amicable relationship in recent years despite Moscow’s ties to Tehran, a balance Russia is unlikely to upset. Russia has also become less dependent on Iranian-supplied attack drones, having ramped up domestic production of drones based on the Shahed-136 design, and it is now supporting drone production in North Korea as well. Nonetheless, damage to Iranian industrial facilities could hinder missile production, including systems exported to Russia. Strategically, Russia may also benefit from the diversion of Western attention to the Middle East, away from its ongoing war in Ukraine, where it is gradually making territorial advances.
China, meanwhile, has played a critical role in sustaining Iran’s economy, acting as the only major buyer of Iranian crude oil and condensates, and establishing a Renminbi-based payment system to circumvent U.S. sanctions. There has been no acknowledged Chinese material support for Iran’s defense during the 12 days of Israeli and U.S. strikes. However, attention has turned to a series of unexplained cargo flights from China to Iran that listed false destinations in public flight records. More notably, recent reports suggest that China delivered HHQ-9B long-range air defense missiles to Iran following the end of hostilities. If confirmed, some analysts may interpret this as a quid pro quo: Chinese arms in exchange for Iranian oil.
Chinese spies target Russian warfighting knowledge, as North Korea targets Chinese dronemakers
Following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there has been a surge in Chinese hacking activity targeting Russian government and corporate systems containing military secrets, cybersecurity analysts told the New York Times. This uptick comes despite China’s cooperation with Russia in supporting its war effort and its public commitment to a “no limits” partnership with Moscow. While China has a much larger economy than Russia and manufactures advanced weapons systems, its military lacks recent combat experience. Chinese personnel have met with Russian counterparts near the front lines in Ukraine to study battlefield lessons, and Russia has promised to offer training seminars.
However, the Chinese military apparently seeks more detailed information than Russia is willing to share—particularly regarding the performance of American and European weapons systems in Ukraine. A recently leaked Russian counterintelligence report outlines what Russia knows about the broad scope of Chinese cyber-espionage efforts to obtain this information. China, for its part, has also been a target of cyberespionage. It recently arrested a North Korean IT specialist, accusing him of illicitly acquiring drone technologies. The fact that this incident was publicly reported in Chinese media, rather than handled discreetly, suggests that Beijing views the matter as serious—especially amid an already strained bilateral relationship with North Korea. technical feedback on the performance of its weapons systems.
Russian advisor touts Power of Siberia project as alternative to reliance on Persian Gulf
June saw an uptick in press coverage of the stalled Russian-Chinese negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project, which has received renewed interest amid recent military clashes between Iran, Israel, and the United States. These tensions have highlighted the potential for instability in the Persian Gulf to disrupt hydrocarbon supplies. Kirill Babayev, head of the China and Contemporary Asia Institute in Moscow, stated that renewed Gulf tensions are likely to revive negotiations with China and predicted that a deal will be finalized before the end of the year. Sources close to Chinese leadership also confirmed to the Wall Street Journal that Beijing’s interest in securing additional Russian gas has increased, given the potential threats to infrastructure in Qatar—the primary exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf—which was targeted in Iran’s June 23 token retaliation for U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities two days earlier. Russia has thus far been unwilling to offer prices low enough to close a deal with China, which remains wary of over-concentrating its energy imports from any single supplier.
North Korea rises relative to Iran as partner for Russia
At a time when Iran’s capabilities have been diminished, North Korea has steadily increased in importance as a security partner for Russia. A recent agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang will see up to 25,000 North Korean workers deployed to the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, where they will help produce Shahed-136 drones—originally of Iranian design—at a new Russian drone factory. This effort is reportedly aimed at increasing drone production from 2,000 to 5,000 units per month, compensating for what is expected to be a halt or reduction in Iranian drone deliveries. According to South Korean intelligence reports, North Korea is also preparing to send additional troops to Russia in the near future. In addition to these forces, the North Korean military has agreed to dispatch 6,000 support personnel to assist with de-mining operations and the reconstruction of military facilities in the Kursk region. In return, Russia is reportedly providing technical assistance to North Korea in areas including air defense, air-to-air missiles, and ballistic missile development, including submarine-launched missiles.
Links
—Russia has eclipsed Ukraine’s previous lead in drone technology with assistance from China. (Politico.eu)
—Russian Security Council head Sergei Shoigu visited Pyongyang for talks with leader Kim Jong Un, during which Kim pledged “unconditional support” for Russia in its war with Ukraine. (Moscow Times, AP)
—President Vladimir Putin warned President Donald Trump that Russia will retaliate against Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian bomber bases. (BBC)
—Russia and North Korea have agreed to resume direct passenger rail service between Moscow and Pyongyang—at over 10,000 kilometers, the longest passenger rail route in the world. (Reuters)
—Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers held phone consultations following the onset of Israeli strikes. (Global Times, China Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
—Iran has placed orders for additional ballistic missile fuel and components. (Wall Street Journal)
—Transport planes have flown from China to Iran while listing false destinations in public flight data. (The Telegraph)
—North Korea has denounced the Israeli strikes on Iran. (North Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Reuters)
—North Korean analysts have assessed the damage to Iranian underground facilities they helped design. (Newsweek)
Recent Analysis
What’s at Stake for China in the Iran War? (Adam Gallagher, U.S. Institute of Peace)
The Iran-China-Russia Axis Crumbles When It Matters (Leon Aron, The Atlantic)
CRANK Perspectives
China Condemns U.S. Attacks on Three Nuclear Sites in Iran (Global Times)
CRANK Call
Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy (gpriddy@cftni.org)
Image: Shutterstock.