Recent Events

  • Is a Collision With Russia Over Ukraine Inevitable?

    Talks last week between U.S., European, and Russian diplomats helped to clarify the wide gap between Russian and Western positions over Ukraine, NATO, and the broader European security architecture. But they made little progress toward bridging this gap. Russia is openly threatening to use “military-technical” or even outright military means if no diplomatic resolution can

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  • Where Is the Unrest in Kazakhstan Headed?

    Developments in Kazakhstan have moved rapidly over the past week from apparently spontaneous protests over gas prices to an organized uprising, the removal of long-time ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev and his supporters from the government, and a successful appeal for the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to send peacekeeping forces. What factors produced this evolving

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  • Where Is the Confrontation Over Ukraine Headed?

    What factors will be pivotal in determining the prospects for war or diplomatic resolution in Ukraine? What key assumptions should the United States examine about how events might unfold? What kind of attack could Russia launch? And what might be the unanticipated consequences of various U.S. policy options? On January 5, the Center for the

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  • Is Washington Encouraging an Anti-American Coalition?

    The Biden administration’s recent virtual democracy summit was aimed at promoting democracy and unifying much of the world in opposition to authoritarianism in Russia and China.  But in seeking to unite the free world and isolate our great power rivals, is Washington inadvertently creating a countervailing coalition that is increasingly prepared to challenge U.S. interests

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  • Is Russia Poised to Invade Ukraine?

    The United States is increasingly concerned by a large buildup of Russian military forces along the border with Ukraine.  Secretary of State Tony Blinken has publicly warned Moscow against launching military operations against Ukraine, American officials have briefed NATO allies about these concerns, and CIA director Bill Burns reportedly raised the matter with Kremlin officials

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