CRANK Call | July 2025
CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs).
July 2025 Highlights
Russian Foreign Minister visits Pyongyang as North Korea readies more troops
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a three-day visit to North Korea beginning on July 12, before traveling to Beijing for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) ministerial meeting. During the visit, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reiterated his country’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, in which North Korea has deployed its own troops. Lavrov, for his part, issued a stern warning to the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which were holding trilateral military exercises nearby.
The high-profile visit came as North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy as many as 30,000 additional soldiers to bolster Russia’s efforts in Ukraine. While the initial North Korean deployment was to Kursk Oblast—where Ukrainian forces had seized some Russian territory but were driven back with North Korean assistance—Ukrainian intelligence suggests this new contingent will be sent to eastern Ukraine to support a fresh Russian offensive this fall, with the full force expected to arrive by November. In addition to benefiting from Russian technology transfers for its submarine and missile forces, North Korea is gaining experience in modern warfare for a military that has not engaged in large-scale combat in recent decades. North Korea has reportedly established production lines for attack drones intended for export to Russia, and Russian instructors have been training North Korean personnel at home to operate drones.
Ukrainian officials have also recently stated that Russia is assisting North Korea in modernizing its nuclear weapons delivery systems. This follows earlier Russian transfers of air defense systems, which are now deployed to protect Pyongyang.
China doubles down on support for Russia after Trump tariff threats
Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged on July 15 to “strengthen mutual support” with Russia as the foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states gathered for a ministerial meeting in Beijing. The meeting took place just one day after President Trump threatened to impose punitive tariffs on countries that continue to import oil or other goods from Russia if it did not agree to resolve its war with Ukraine within 50 days. Xi also called for closer Sino-Russian cooperation to rally the “Global South” against Western domination. Trump’s ultimatum deadline was later shortened, leading to the scheduling of a Trump-Putin summit in Alaska for August 15.
Chinese engines power Russian attack drones in Ukraine
A Chinese manufacturer has been supplying engines to a Russian attack drone producer, according to European security officials and documents reviewed by Reuters. The purchases by IMEZ Kupol have been routed through front companies to conceal their origin, enabling Russia to accelerate production of its Garpiya-A1 (Harpy) attack drones. Under this supply arrangement, IMEZ Kupol has contracted with the Russian Defense Ministry to produce 6,000 of the drones in 2025, up from 2,000 last year. The United States imposed sanctions last year on several entities involved in this trade, but the companies appear to have developed new channels to continue it.
Iran seeks increased weapons supplies from China
After sustaining widespread damage during 12 days of Israeli and U.S. air and missile strikes in June, Iran is urgently replenishing its stock of military hardware—particularly air defense missiles and associated radar systems—and is increasingly looking to China as a potential supplier. While Chinese sources have denied this, a number of foreign media outlets (including in Israel) have confirmed Chinese deliveries of HQ-9 air defense batteries in late June, first reported by Middle East Eye in early July.
Iran’s order for Russian Su-35 fighter jets has been delayed. Although the Iranian military possessed Russian S-300 air defense systems, these reportedly performed poorly against the Israeli Air Force and appear to have been destroyed. With Russia preoccupied by its war in Ukraine, Iran is reportedly interested in acquiring Chinese fighter jets to replace its antiquated air force—particularly after Chinese hardware deployed by Pakistan performed well in its recent clash with India.
Links
—Chinese officials reportedly told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing could not tolerate Russia losing its war with Ukraine—a stance that contradicts China’s public position. (CNN)
—The Russian and Chinese heads of state failed to attend the BRICS summit in Brazil, hinting at a diminished status for the group. (The Guardian)
—Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the BRICS summit to offer Russia’s help in resolving Iran’s disputes with opponents of its nuclear program. (Reuters)
—Russia denied reports that it urged Iran to accept a “zero enrichment” nuclear deal with the United States. (Moscow Times)
—Russia launched the Iranian telecommunications satellite Nahid-2 on a Soyuz launch vehicle, alongside several other Russian payloads. (Newsweek)
—Russia began scheduled air service between Moscow and Pyongyang for the first time since the 1990s. (Reuters)
—Israel urged China to pressure Iran to rein in its nuclear ambitions. (Bloomberg)
—China plans to increase bilateral aid to North Korea, including healthcare support, in a potential sign of warming relations. (NK Daily)
—The Chinese Embassy in Pyongyang hosted a banquet to mark the 64th anniversary of the two countries’ mutual defense treaty, a move that may signal improved relations. (Korea Herald, NK News)
—North Korean state media suggests that the United States bombed Iran because it lacked nuclear weapons. (Korea JoongAng Daily)
Recent Analysis
The Limits of Russia’s Friendship: How Moscow Sees the Iran Crisis (Alexander Palmer and Sofiia Syzonenko, Center for Strategic and International Studies)
War With Iran Exposes the Emptiness of the ‘Axis of Autocracy’ (Daniel DePetris, Defense Priorities, writing in POLITICO)
Sino-Russian Convergence in Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference: A Global Threat to the US and Its Allies (Tamás Matura, Center for European Policy Analysis)
CRANK Call
Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy (gpriddy@cftni.org)
Image: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.