CRANK Call | January 2025

CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs).

January 2025 Highlights

Russia and Iran finally sign Strategic Partnership Agreement

Presidents Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin signed their long-awaited comprehensive strategic partnership treaty on January 17 during Pezeshkian’s visit to Moscow. The agreement covers a period of 20 years. Iranian officials emphasized that the treaty is not a military alliance, despite the heavy focus on cooperation in the defense sector. Iran is reportedly pressing Moscow for increased assistance in restoring its air defense capabilities, badly damaged in an Israeli strike last October, and assistance with its nuclear program. Western intelligence agencies are reportedly concerned that Russia might consider going beyond previous limits on its assistance for Iran’s nuclear program, drawn in by the value of Iran as a source for drones and missiles.

While significant, the treaty seems to show some of the limitations of the relationship between Russia and Iran. It falls far short of the mutual defense language contained in the Russian agreement concluded with North Korea in November 2024 and does not include any concrete commitments. Language on strengthening cooperation in defense, energy, trade and other fields seems to be a summary of the existing relationship as it has developed in recent years, propelled by the war in Ukraine, rather than a binding program of future actions.

Subsequently, after the February 2025 meeting in Saudi Arabia between cabinet-level U.S. and Russian officials to discuss Ukraine and a potential reset in the U.S.-Russia relationship, Russia officials made clear that this would not have an impact on their current cooperation with Iran, including in defense.

Iran procures solid rocket fuel precursor from China

Two Iranian vessels loaded cargoes of about 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate at ports in China in mid-January. The chemical is among the primary precursor chemicals used in manufacturing solid rocket fuel for ballistic missiles. The shipments arrived in Iran in mid-February without incident.

A round of Israeli strikes dealt a strong blow to Iran’s ballistic missile programs in late October; the attacks hit manufacturing plants and appear to have destroyed much of Iran’s supply of the solid rocket propellant and precursor chemicals. Israeli sources said at the time that the strikes had “crippled” Iran’s missile manufacturing capability by interrupting its ability to make solid fuel. It now appears, however, that Iran’s missile industry may be recovering faster than expected, with Chinese assistance.

North Korea gains valuable experience from deployment in Ukraine

The North Korean military is gaining valuable combat experience from its deployment in Ukraine, and U.S. officials are concerned that this could increase their combat capability against South Korea. Prior to sending troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, North Korea’s 1.3 million-strong military has not fought in a major conflict since the 1950s.

The war in Ukraine also is the first major war in which small tactical drones have been used in both sides in combat, rather than as a strike platform wielded by the technologically superior side, as they were by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan. This has driven significant changes in combat tactics. North Korea also is getting combat testing for the first time on some of its indigenous weapons systems, including some supplied to Russian forces. In a January 8 presentation to the UN Security Council following North Korea’s most recent ballistic missile test, Deputy U.S. Representative Dorothy Shea said that the U.S. expected that this experience would both increase North Korea’s combat capabilities and boost sales of North Korean weapons and military training. Ukrainian sources have spoken well of the North Koreans’ military skills and motivation, though based on documents found with casualties, they also seem to be sending some soldiers sourced from prison camps.

China moves to deport North Korean workers

The Chinese government has been systematically putting pressure on North Korean workers in China, who have been a significant source of remittances, as a result of their displeasure over North Korea’s direct involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. China first restricted the number of long-term work visas available, then recently has barred additional North Koreans from coming into China to work. It also has established an office in the border city of Dandong to detain and repatriate North Koreans who are in China without work visas or with expired visas. Chinese companies which were expecting North Korean contract workers to arrive have been unable to obtain new visas for them.

Links

—Russia’s ambassador to China Igor Morgulov said Chinese President Xi Jinpeng will make a state visit to Russia in 2025. Xi’s last visit to Russia was in March 2023. (Vestnik Kavkaza)

—Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the country’s largest bank, Sberbank, to work with China in research and development on artificial intelligence, a field where Russia has lagged behind due to sanctions. (Voice of America)

—Bilateral trade between Russia and China hit a new record in 2024, up 2.9% from 2023 at $237 billion. This continues at a slower pace than the 32.7% growth seen in 2023 as Russia was forced to reorient its trade away from Europe. (Reuters)

—President Trump said during his remote speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos that he would like to see the U.S., Russia, and China begin a discussion about reducing their nuclear arsenals. (Semafor)

—Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan are considering linking their power grids. Azerbaijan in part aims to establish a link to its exclave of Nakhchivan, now that it appears that Russia will not support Baku’s ambition to establish a territorial corridor along the Iranian-Armenian border. (Vestnik Kazkaza)

—While South Korean officials do not see signs of any imminent major provocations, they do expect that North Korea will continue to send additional military manpower to Ukraine. (Korea Herald)

—Vostok Intur, a Russian travel agency based in Vladivostok, has begun advertising vacation packages in North Korea’s Kalma tourist zone, on the east coast. (Korea Times)

—China Is increasingly uncomfortable with North Korea’s strengthening ties with Russia, but unlikely to do anything to pressure North Korea sufficiently to undermine that. (The Diplomat)

—North Korea increases surveillance of users of Chinese mobile phones along the border. (Daily NK)

—China reported a total of $2.2 billion in trade with North Korea for 2024, down slightly from $2.3 billion in 2023 and still well below the pre-pandemic peak of $2.8 billion. (NK News)

—China has failed to cooperate with European efforts to block re-export of machine tools and related technology to North Korea. (Institute for Science and International Security)

Recent Analysis

New Russia-Iran Treaty Reveals the Limits of Their Partnership (Nikita Smagin, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go Nuclear? (Nicole Grajewski and Or Rabinowitz, Foreign Affairs)

CRANK Perspectives

China-North Korea Relations Start the New Year on a New Low (Cao Xin and Cao Zhong, South China Morning Post)

China-Iran Relations Entering into Stage of Mutual Political Trust (Dr. Jin Liangxiang, Tehran Times)

CRANK Call

Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy (gpriddy@cftni.org)

Image credit: Press office of Ali Khamenei (via Wikimedia Commons)