CRANK Call | January 2025

CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs).

January 2025 Highlights

Fall of Assad regime in Syria deals massive blow to Iranian and Russian interests

President Bashar Assad of Syria fled to Russia and gave up power on December 8 following a lightning offensive by Syria’s Hayat al Tahrir el Sham (HTS) rebel group in early December, first taking Aleppo then moving south to Damascus facing very little resistance. It was a sudden reversal at a time when most observers thought the Assad regime had effectively won Syria’s civil war with Russian and Iranian support. Russia and Iran have had a complicated relationship in Syria, cooperating closely on propping up the regime, while Russia remained aloof from Israel’s periodic strikes on Iranian, Iranian-backed, and regime forces. Both Moscow and Tehran have suffered significant geopolitical losses, with Russia losing its only naval base on the Mediterranean, and Iran losing its land bridge across Iraq and Syria to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The offensive came as the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers were both headed to the Doha Forum conference in Qatar. In a series of meetings on the sidelines, Russia and Iran effectively negotiated the fall of Assad with Turkey, which had green-lit the HTS offensive after Assad refused to open a dialogue with Ankara. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had denounced HTS as “terrorists” as late as December 7, but by the following day he made a phone call to Assad from Doha telling him he should flee the country for Russia.

Thus far, the new interim government under Ahmed al Sharaa, leader of HTS, seems to be holding, and it was able to take over much of Syria’s state apparatus intact. Importantly, in nationally-televised remarks on December 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Iran-backed units in Aleppo failed to put up a fight against the HTS offensive and that Iranian forces relied on Russian aircraft to safely ferry them home from Syria. This infuriated Iranian elites and even prompted debate over the Iran-Russia relationship. The future of Russian bases is Syria is still unclear, though Russian forces have been seen removing air defense missiles and other major weapons systems. A senior Russian delegation was in Damascus in late January for talks with the HTS-led interim government.

U.S. imposes sanctions on Russian and Iranian entities over election interference

On December 31, 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on several Russian and Iranian entities over their efforts to “stoke socio-political tensions and influence the U.S. electorate during the 2024 U.S. election.” The Russian government has denied the allegations. According to Treasury, the Moscow-based Center for Geopolitical Expertise circulated disinformation about the candidates and directed the production of deepfake videos. The organization also indirectly funded six American social media influencers who spread some of its materials, apparently not knowing the origin of the funds. Two Russian nationals were indicted in the U.S. in September for their involvement in the funding scheme. It is reportedly connected to Russia’s GRU military intelligence service. Iran’s Cognitive Design Production Center is allegedly associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Russia and China discuss missile defense and the nuclear balance

Working level Russian and Chinese officials held a detailed discussion of issues surrounding nuclear strategic stability and missile defense in early December, according to Russia’s foreign ministry. The talks included “medium-range and short-range missiles” according to the ministry, which may be a reference to tactical nuclear weapons and limited nuclear war scenarios. Given the rapid expansion going on with China’s nuclear arsenal, the U.S. would probably insist that any future arms control agreements be trilateral, involving the U.S., Russia, and China. President Trump caused a stir in late January when he made remarks about “denuclearization” with Russia and China in his video presentation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, though it is more likely he meant that the U.S. is at least theoretically open to new trilateral arms control talks. The Chinese position is that both Russia and the U.S. should make cuts to their arsenals before asking China to do so, given their relative sizes.

Iran scrambles to sell crude oil in Chinese storage

Press reports indicate that the IRGC has been making vigorous efforts to sell crude oil it owns at the storage hub at the port of Dalian in northeast China. The IRGC has title to the crude and is handling the sales because it is allocated a percentage of the country’s oil output as part of its funding. Occasionally, volumes that the IRGC is not able to sell on acceptable terms are stored on short and in a growing number of vessels holding unsold Iranian crude at sea. The effort to unload the crude appears to reflect concerns that it will become harder to find buyers under the incoming Trump administration, which has stated an intent to be more aggressive in going after Chinese refiners and banks participating in this trade and in restoring “maximum pressure” on Iran. The Biden administration soft-pedaled sanctions enforcement during the second half of its term, allowing many “ghost fleet” vessels to go unsanctioned and targeting only smaller Chinese refiners and banks. Iran’s crude oil exports in 2024 averaged 1.6 million bpd, according to estimates from data-broker Kpler, up from previous years.

North Korean troops suffer heavy losses in war against Ukraine

North Korean forces fighting to expel Ukrainian troops from the Russian border region of Kursk have sustained heavy losses in December, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in late December that around 3,000 North Koreans had been either wounded or killed. South Korea, which has military intelligence specialists in Ukraine to assist with interrogation of prisoners, has cited a more conservative figure of 1,100 casualties. Ukraine made its first capture of North Korean soldiers in early December, when it detained two injured soldiers. Russia had made efforts to disguise their identity, with one in possession of a Russian military ID saying he was from Tuva. Subsequently, in January, Ukrainian military sources have reported that North Korean forces may have been rotated off the front lines due to high casualties. Such rotations are a standard measure, and do not indicate a permanent withdrawal.

Links

—Russia and Iran announced their intention on December 24 to finalize their new strategic partnership treaty prior to President Trump’s inauguration. The signing by the two heads of state took place in Moscow on January 17, 2025. (Newsweek)

—President Biden reportedly approved a classified National Security Memorandum on December 11 which is intended to set policy for countering growing cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. (Associated Press)

—China’s exports to Russia dropped for first time in four months in data for November, which may be the result of payment problems due to sanctions. (Reuters)

—Analysis of recent satellite images shows that North Korea is expanding its munitions manufacturing capacity to increase the flow of arms to Russia. (Wall Street Journal)

—Russia intends to transfer Mig-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft to North Korea soon as part of its payment to North Korea for providing manpower for its war in Ukraine, according to Adm. Sam Paparo, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. (Defense One, Aviation Week)

—U.S. officials say that the idea of supplying North Korean troops for direct support to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine originated with the North Korean side. (New York Times)

—Chinese law enforcement has launched a crackdown on the significant population of North Koreans living illegally in Inner Mongolia. (NK News)

—North Korean imports from China surged in the data for November, possibly as a result of revenues from Russia. (NK News)

—China’s Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing visited Tehran on December 5 for talks with President Massood Pezeshkian under the framework of their 2021 strategic partnership treaty. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi visited Beijing on December 28 for talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, with the agenda centering on Gaza and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. (South China Morning Post)

Recent Analysis

How Evil? Deconstructing the New Russia–China–Iran–North Korea Axis (Christopher Chivvis and Jack Keating, Survival)

Can Trump Split China and Russia? (Alexander Gabuev, Foreign Affairs)

The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests (Patricia M. Kim, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, and Tara Varma, Brookings China Center)

No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy (Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine, Council on Foreign Relations)

Tehran’s proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them. (Delaney Soliday and Shivane Anand, Breaking Defense)

CRANK Perspectives

Jointly Building the ‘Belt and Road’, China and Iran Stride Forward Hand in Hand (Amb. Cong Peiwu, Tehran Times)

CRANK Call

Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy (gpriddy@cftni.org)

Image credit: Press office of Ali Khamenei (via Wikimedia Commons)