Geo-Connectivity and the Death of Eurasia

In moments of crisis, the connections that bind Eurasia’s economies together can become the very channels through which instability spreads. This “geo-connectivity” framework responds to a dynamic that became impossible to ignore this year with three concurrent war theaters overlapping across Eurasia: Ukraine, Iran, and Afghanistan-Pakistan. Existing analytical traditions treat each theater in isolation and systematically underestimate the compounding effects.

Geo-connectivity maps the overlapping networks through which geopolitical shocks travel, including pipelines, ports, supply chains, financial flows, and institutional linkages. It then assesses the structural properties of those networks to determine whether they absorb shocks or amplify them. The Eurasian system is treated as one integrated network, not a collection of regional theaters. One of the early findings is that Central Asia has shown great resilience and emerged as a relatively stable core of Eurasia.

On Tuesday, June 30, the Center for the National Interest welcomed the co-authors of a path-breaking new article in The National Interest.

—Eldaniz Gusseinov is co-founder and Head of Research at Nightingale Int., a geopolitical advisory specializing in Central Asia and Greater Eurasia, and focuses on forecasting methods, trade corridors, regional conflicts, and the strategic behavior of middle powers across Eurasia. He has worked for academic institutions and think tanks in Europe and Central Asia, and has authored numerous analytical papers on regional integration, transport infrastructure, and critical minerals policy, shaping debates on Central Asia’s evolving place in global geopolitics. He is currently a Research Fellow at the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies, Ibn Haldun University, where his work produces authoritative assessments on the political and economic trajectories of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

—Vlad Paddack is a founding member of Nightingale Int., a geopolitical advisory specializing in Central Asia and Greater Eurasia, and a senior analyst at AKE International, where he leads intelligence collection and risk assessment across Europe and Eurasia. His work sits at the intersection of energy, critical minerals, trade corridors, and regional connectivity, serving clients operating in complex political environments. Vlad advises public- and private-sector clients on security, political, and economic risks, delivering tailored reporting and strategic forecasting. He has contributed analysis to major outlets and speaks regularly at industry forums on Eurasian geopolitics, critical minerals, and regional connectivity.

Dr. Andrew C. Kuchins, senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest, moderated the presentations and discussion.