Iran: What Comes Next?

Iran has recently seen one of the most significant waves of political protest since the fall of the Shah in 1979. The state repression unleashed to counter the protests appears to have resulted in thousands of deaths. While the intensity of the unrest seems to have ebbed for now, it seems to many observers that the regime’s grip on power is on a downward trajectory and will be unsustainable in the long-term. President Trump has moved US military assets to the region and seems to be nearing a decision about whether or not to intervene, having demanded that Iran halt state violence toward the protestors and make major concessions on its weapons programs.

What are the prospects for fundamental political change in Iran, both in the short term and the long term? What are the drivers of the sort of “elite fracture” that could undermine the repressive power of the regime? Will the divided opposition coalesce around an alternative? What is the role, if any, of Reza Pahlavi? Would U.S. military intervention help push the regime toward its demise, or might it instead cause some Iranians to unify against a foreign threat? This is clearly a rapidly evolving situation, and there will be much to discuss.

On February 12, 2026, the Center for the National Interest invited two experts on Iran to address these questions and more:

—Sina Azodi is Assistant Professor of Middle East Politics at The George Washington University. He is a frequent commentator on Iranian affairs for both English-language and Persian-language media. He is the author of the forthcoming book Iran and the Bomb: The United States, Iran, and the Nuclear Question.

—Alex Vatanka is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, specializing in Middle Eastern regional security with a particular focus on Iran. Born in Tehran, he is the author of The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy and Political Rivalry Since 1979 (2021) and Iran and Pakistan: Security, Diplomacy, and American Influence (2015). He is currently working on his third book, Grand Contest: The Rivalry of Iran, America, and Israel in the Arab World.

Greg Priddy, Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National Interest, moderated the discussion.