Netanyahu’s Exit Strategy: Israeli Politics After the War

Benjamin Netanyahu believes he has a short window of opportunity to eliminate the long-standing threats from Israel’s fiercest regional rivals, and he could achieve his goals by the end of the spring or early summer, argues Center for the National Interest Senior Fellow Joshua Yaphe in a new Issue Brief. At that point, the campaign season kicks into high gear in Israel and the United States. Yaphe explores the most likely scenarios that could result. Chief among them, he writes, is another term for Bibi. Netanyahu has already declared his candidacy for October, and military success against Iran could give him the momentum to come out ahead at the polls.

However, it is hard to imagine why Netanyahu would want to run again, Yaphe argues. The Israeli leader will have accomplished his vision for ensuring the security of the Jewish state. Another term will only bring more legal battles, the struggle to maintain a coalition, demands from the far right for full annexation, international pressure to repair the damage across the region, and the chance that he overstays his welcome, as public opinion moves on from the war or external factors intervene. Thus, Yaphe also considers a low-probability scenario in which Netanyahu bows out of the race, which would be a high-impact event leaving a deep mark on Israeli politics. For as much as the narrative seems straightforward going into this fall, the truth may be that only Netanyahu himself knows if he will run again.

About the Author:

Joshua Yaphe is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, host of the Key Judgments podcast on Intelligence Studies, and author of Time and Narrative in Intelligence Analysis: A New Framework for the Production of Meaning (Routledge, 2025), which is available for free in an Open Access edition online. He was Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and visiting professor at the National Intelligence University (NIU). He received a PhD in History from American University in Washington, DC, and authored the book Saudi Arabia and Iraq as Friends and Enemies: Borders, Tribes and a History Shared (University of Liverpool Press, 2022).

The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Government.