Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine and U.S./Israel-Iran Wars for the Korean Peninsula

The Russia-Ukraine and U.S./Israel-Iran wars have revealed considerable evolution in technologies, weapons, and tactics. UAVs (drones) and unmanned surface and underwater vehicles, cluster munitions, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, and electronic warfare systems have featured prominently in one or both of the conflicts, among other weapons, as have information operations and targeting of critical infrastructure.

On Thursday, July 9, the Center for the National Interest held the second session of its “U.S.-Korea Security Breakfast Series.” We welcomed three distinguished speakers to draw out lessons from these operations and apply them to a potential conflict between North and South Korea.

—Jeffrey Edmonds is a senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses and founder of True North Policy, a boutique geopolitical consulting firm. An expert on U.S. national security, he was previously Senior Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Earlier, he was Director for Russia on the National Security Council and Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency with portfolios ranging from South Asian insurgencies to Eurasian security issues. He has served in the U.S. Army on both active duty and in the reserves for 28 years, including tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

—Jenny Town is a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center and the Director of 38 North. Her areas of expertise include North Korea, U.S.-DPRK relations, U.S.-ROK alliance relations and extended deterrence, and Northeast Asia regional security. She was named one of Worth Magazine’s “Groundbreakers 2020: 50 Women Changing the World” and one of Fast Company’s Most Creative People in Business in 2019 for her role in co-founding and managing 38 North, which provides policy and technical analysis on North Korea.

—Vann H. Van Diepen is an independent consultant after serving 34 years in the U.S. Government on WMD issues. From 2009 to 2016, he was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation (including over two years as Acting Assistant Secretary). From 2006 to 2009, he was the U.S. National Intelligence Officer for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation.

Dr. Jae H. Ku, Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, moderated the discussion.

***To encourage a candid exchange of views, the discussion was held on a not-for-attribution basis. The above transcript does not disclose the identities of any questioners or commentators other than the panelists.