Joshua Yaphe
Senior Fellow
For fifteen years, Joshua Yaphe served as the lead analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, where he drafted analytical products, briefed policymakers, hosted roundtables, and provided institutional memory on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Oman and Yemen. He has been a frequent participant in Track Two forums on the Middle East and a guest speaker at academic and think tank events in the United States, Europe and the Gulf.
Yaphe is the author of Saudi Arabia and Iraq as Friends and Enemies: Borders, Tribes and a History Shared (University of Liverpool Press, 2021), and his latest book, Time and Narrative in Intelligence Analysis: A New Framework for the Production of Meaning (Routledge, 2025), is available in an Open Access online edition.
He has a Ph.D. in History from American University in Washington, DC. In 2020, he was a Visiting Fellow at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, and from 2022 to 2024, he served as a visiting faculty member at the National Intelligence University.
Programs:
Recent Events:
- Iraq After the 2025 Elections, 19 December 2025.
- Rising Lion, Falling Order? The Israel-Iran Conflict and What’s Next, 18 June 2025.
- An Interview with U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Joey R. Hood, 30 October 2024.
- The Middle East One Year After October 7, 7 October 2024.
Reports:
- Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East (October 2025).
- Türkiye and the Problem of an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy (September 2025).
- Everyone Will Be Disappointed With the Day After in Gaza (September 2025).
Recent Publications:
- Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East, The National Interest, 3 October 2025.
- Without a Gaza Solution, Israeli Normalization Is Still Distant, The National Interest, 2 September 2025.
- A Turning Point for the Intelligence Community, The National Interest, 16 August 2025.
- The US Can “Succeed” Against Iran, but at What Cost?, The National Interest, 28 June 2025.
- Israel’s Iran Strike: What’s Next?, The National Interest, 13 June 2025.
- A Grand Syria-Gaza Bargain, The National Interest, 19 May 2025.
- In Defense of Marco Rubio, The National Interest, 2 May 2025.
- The Real Foreign Policy Battle in the GOP, The National Interest, 15 April 2025.
- Taking on Iran, The American Mind, 7 April 2025.
- Wokeness Is Just One Facet of U.S. Intel’s Flaws, National Review, 3 April 2025.
- Engaging with the New Syria: Risks and Opportunities, The National Interest, 23 December 2024.
- Getting Peace in the Middle East, The American Mind, 11 December 2024.
- What the Collapse of Assad Means for the Middle East, The National Interest, 10 December 2024.
- Kuwait at the Crossroads, The National Interest, 22 November 2024.
- Donald Trump’s Saudi Opportunity, The National Interest, 14 November 2024.
- The Middle East, One Year After October 7, The National Interest, 8 October 2024.
- Libya’s Unity Government is Living on Borrowed Time, The National Interest, 2 September 2024.
- Gaza: A Return to the Status Quo Ante, The National Interest, 4 August 2024.
Podcasts:
- “Iraqi Elections,” Divergences, 7 November 2025.
- “The Yemeni Conflict in a Global Context,” Divergences, 7 October 2025.
- “Intelligence Cultures in Israel and America with Itai Shapira,” Key Judgments, 1 October 2025.
- “Intelligence and Academia with Thomas Juneau,” Key Judgments, 18 September 2025.
- “Policymakers and Intelligence with Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad,” Key Judgments, 10 September 2025.
- “Intelligence Reporting with Warren Strobel,” Key Judgments, 10 September 2025.
- “Iran After the 12-Day War,” Divergences, 3 September 2025.
- “Book Launch with Paul Saunders,” Key Judgments, 15 August 2025.
- “What’s Next After the Strikes on Iran?,” Three Questions, 30 June 2025.
- “Reporting on the Arab World Through China’s Lens,” Divergences, 19 May 2025.
- “Dubai Between Two Giants,” Divergences, 5 May 2025.