Joshua Yaphe
Senior Fellow
For fifteen years, Joshua Yaphe served as the lead analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). He has also been a frequent participant in Track Two forums on the Middle East and guest speaker at events in the United States, Europe, and the Gulf. He has written for National Review, The American Mind, The American Spectator, The National Interest, and other publications.
Dr. Yaphe is the author of Saudi Arabia and Iraq as Friends and Enemies: Borders, Tribes and a History Shared (University of Liverpool Press, 2021), and Time and Narrative in Intelligence Analysis: A New Framework for the Production of Meaning (Routledge, 2025), which is available in an Open Access edition. He has a Ph.D. from American University in Washington, DC, and served as a Visiting Fellow at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations. He was also a Visiting Faculty member at National Intelligence University and a Dean’s Fellow at Dickinson College.
Programs:
Recent Events:
- Iraq After the 2025 Elections, 19 December 2025.
- Rising Lion, Falling Order? The Israel-Iran Conflict and What’s Next, 18 June 2025.
- An Interview with U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Joey R. Hood, 30 October 2024.
- The Middle East One Year After October 7, 7 October 2024.
Policy Briefs:
- The Popular Mobilization Forces: Power, Influence, and the Future of Iraq (April 2026).
- The Arab Gulf States After the War: Expectations for Washington and Tehran (March 2026).
- Netanyahu’s Exit Strategy: Israeli Politics After the War (March 2026).
- The Ghosts of Neocons Past: Stabilization and Reconstruction in the Trump Era (January 2026).
- Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East (October 2025).
- Türkiye and the Problem of an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy (September 2025).
- Everyone Will Be Disappointed With the Day After in Gaza (September 2025).
Recent Publications:
- When Governments Trade on Secrets, The American Spectator, 3 May 2026.
- How the Iran Strikes May Help Disarm Hezbollah, The National Interest, 2 March 2026.
- Why the United States Is Unprepared for Iranian Regime Change, The National Interest, 13 January 2026.
- Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East, The National Interest, 3 October 2025.
- Without a Gaza Solution, Israeli Normalization Is Still Distant, The National Interest, 2 September 2025.
- A Turning Point for the Intelligence Community, The National Interest, 16 August 2025.
- The US Can “Succeed” Against Iran, but at What Cost?, The National Interest, 28 June 2025.
- Israel’s Iran Strike: What’s Next?, The National Interest, 13 June 2025.
- A Grand Syria-Gaza Bargain, The National Interest, 19 May 2025.
- In Defense of Marco Rubio, The National Interest, 2 May 2025.
- The Real Foreign Policy Battle in the GOP, The National Interest, 15 April 2025.
- Taking on Iran, The American Mind, 7 April 2025.
- Wokeness Is Just One Facet of U.S. Intel’s Flaws, National Review, 3 April 2025.
- Engaging with the New Syria: Risks and Opportunities, The National Interest, 23 December 2024.
- Getting Peace in the Middle East, The American Mind, 11 December 2024.
- What the Collapse of Assad Means for the Middle East, The National Interest, 10 December 2024.
- Kuwait at the Crossroads, The National Interest, 22 November 2024.
- Donald Trump’s Saudi Opportunity, The National Interest, 14 November 2024.
- The Middle East, One Year After October 7, The National Interest, 8 October 2024.
- Libya’s Unity Government is Living on Borrowed Time, The National Interest, 2 September 2024.
- Gaza: A Return to the Status Quo Ante, The National Interest, 4 August 2024.
Podcasts:
- “Syria’s Fragile Transition,” Divergences, 23 March 2026.
- “Energy Intelligence Issues with Colby Connelly,” Key Judgments, 27 February 2026.
- “Consultancies and Think Tanks with Ted Karasik,” Key Judgments, 16 January 2026.
- “Iraqi Elections,” Divergences, 7 November 2025.
- “The Yemeni Conflict in a Global Context,” Divergences, 7 October 2025.
- “Intelligence Cultures in Israel and America with Itai Shapira,” Key Judgments, 1 October 2025.
- “Intelligence and Academia with Thomas Juneau,” Key Judgments, 18 September 2025.
- “Policymakers and Intelligence with Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad,” Key Judgments, 10 September 2025.
- “Intelligence Reporting with Warren Strobel,” Key Judgments, 10 September 2025.
- “Iran After the 12-Day War,” Divergences, 3 September 2025.
- “Book Launch with Paul Saunders,” Key Judgments, 15 August 2025.
- “What’s Next After the Strikes on Iran?,” Three Questions, 30 June 2025.
- “Reporting on the Arab World Through China’s Lens,” Divergences, 19 May 2025.
- “Dubai Between Two Giants,” Divergences, 5 May 2025.

