The Popular Mobilization Forces: Power, Influence, and the Future of Iraq

In our latest Policy Brief, we welcome a guest contributor from Iraq, Alfadhel Ahmad, who writes in collaboration with CFTNI Senior Fellow Joshua Yaphe. The topic is “The Popular Mobilization Forces: Power, Influence, and the Future of Iraq,” and the two authors explore the sad reality that the current Iran War is masking. Washington has little influence over the PMF, which are so deeply embedded in the economy and society that they cannot simply be wished away. The PMF are also facing serious challenges related to political participation, troop motivation, and financial sustainability, all of which could lead to a competition among the armed groups for survival.

Alfadhel and Joshua propose that a major political or economic crisis could upset the balance at any time. That might mean a fight among the militias, with the state lacking the capacity and the political will to intervene. In the meantime, however, the authors believe that there are opportunities to engage with those PMF members who genuinely want to transition away from militancy to politics. They contend that the structural conditions that allow the PMF to operate and flourish will not last forever, and some of these armed groups are probably already facing extinction.

About the Authors:

Alfadhel Ahmad is an Iraqi political analyst and strategic communications advisor based in Najaf, Iraq. He has worked on a range of projects with senior Iraqi policymakers up to the level of Prime Minister and with members of the Iraqi Council of Representatives from the Foreign Relations, Finance, and Legal Committees. His writings have been featured in Al Jazeera, The New Region, and other publications.

Joshua Yaphe is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, host of the Key Judgments podcast on Intelligence Studies, and author of Time and Narrative in Intelligence Analysis: A New Framework for the Production of Meaning (Routledge, 2025), which is available for free in an Open Access edition online. He was Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and visiting professor at the National Intelligence University (NIU). He received a PhD in History from American University in Washington, DC, and authored the book Saudi Arabia and Iraq as Friends and Enemies: Borders, Tribes and a History Shared (University of Liverpool Press, 2022).

The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Government.