CRANK Call | February 2025

CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs).

February 2025 Highlights

Russia and Iran “align positions” on nuclear program amid potential signs of discord

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi and President Massoud Pezeshkian on February 25 to “align positions” around Iran’s nuclear program, according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. Lavrov previously stated that Russia still supported diplomatic means of resolving the issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the monitoring of its compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The meeting in Tehran came one day before the IAEA distributed a report to its Board of Governors, which showed that Iran had made major strides in the installation of new cascades of advanced centrifuges, expanding its enrichment throughput capacity, and accelerating the rate of accumulation of 60% highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is near weapons grade.

Subsequently, on March 4, press reporting indicated that President Vladimir Putin had offered for Russia to mediate between Iran and the United States on the nuclear issue. The following day, Russian officials said that the Iranian nuclear issue would be on the agenda for U.S.-Russian meetings in the near future. Hardliners in Iran are likely to be suspicious of Russian motives, given the moves toward rapprochement with the U.S. The resignation of Pezeshkian’s reformist Vice President Javad Zarif on March 2 under pressure from hardline elements in Tehran suggests that Iran may be retreating from its recent indications of openness to negotiations with the U.S. on the nuclear issue.

President Putin calls Xi to reassure on ties after signaling rapprochement with Trump

Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Xi Jinping of China on February 24 to discuss bilateral ties following a U.S.-Russian meeting in Riyadh, which carried strong indications of a U.S.-Russia rapprochement. The call, along with the very positive language attributed to Xi in Chinese media coverage, appeared intended to dispel any speculation that the “no limits” partnership between Russia and China would be undermined by a warming of U.S.-Russia relations. Trump’s overtures toward Putin have fueled speculation in many quarters that the U.S. is trying to split Russia from China, a country which many in the U.S. view as its main strategic rival. For his part, President Xi told Putin that he was pleased with Russia’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine. He reiterated his call for an international conference on ending the war, echoing a proposal he had made alongside President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil during a visit last year. A few days later, on February 27, Chinese officials issued a very harsh public response to comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an interview with Breitbart in which he suggested that Russia was a “junior partner” beholden to China and could escape that status.

North Korean missiles appear to be gaining in accuracy

Short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) manufactured by North Korea and used by Russia against Ukraine appear to have improved in accuracy since late December, compared to previous North Korean K-23 and K-24 missiles. Over 20 North Korean SRBMs used by Russia against Ukraine during that period have hit within 50-100 meters of their intended targets, which suggests that North Korea has been able to make improvements based on recent battlefield experience, with Russian assistance, or both. Earlier Russian use of these missiles had shown a circular error probability of 1-3 kilometers. Satellite photos indicate that North Korea is expanding the complex that manufactures these missiles, and the greater accuracy could make them more attractive to potential export buyers. These missiles carry a large payload of about a ton, and the new accuracy level makes them highly effective for striking fixed targets.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China meet to mark two years of normalization

Deputy foreign ministers from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China met in Riyadh to discuss enhancing cooperation, coinciding with the two-year anniversary of the Beijing Agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations and refrain from certain antagonistic behaviors. Their statement emphasized mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference in one another’s internal affairs. In 2023, both countries took mutual steps to cease support for political opposition groups, sectarian groups, and media outlets that had previously been sources of friction. They also held the inaugural meeting of a new Iranian-Saudi Joint Media Committee and agreed to pursue a treaty to eliminate double-taxation, aiming to facilitate enhanced business ties between the two countries.

Links

—Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 ministerial in South Africa on February 20, discussing topics including the conflict in Ukraine and relations with the U.S. (Reuters)

—Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on February 24, reportedly to brief him on recent discussions with U.S. officials. (Vestnik Kavkaza)

—After a phone call with Putin, President Xi was quoted by Chinese state media as welcoming improved U.S.-Russia relations. (Anadolu News Agency)

—Russia and Iran have expressed readiness to cooperate toward establishing peace in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to a statement following the meeting between their foreign ministers on February 25. (Vestnik Kavkaza)

—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made visits to several military training facilities, during which he reportedly criticized their performance. South Korean intelligence believes this pressure on training institutions may be in preparation for deployment of additional troops to Ukraine. (Reuters)

—A high-ranking official of North Korea’s Workers’ Party signed an agreement with Putin’s United Russia party on mutual exchanges between party cadres. (Korea Times)

—North Korean officials from the Pyongyang city administration visited Kursk oblast for talks with local officials about strengthening economic cooperation. (NK News)

—Key U.S. Senators are calling for sanctions against China for last month’s shipment of a solid rocket fuel precursor to Iran. (U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee)

Recent Analysis

The Arctic Is Testing the Limits of the Sino-Russian Partnership (Andrei Dagaev, Carnegie Politika)

Iran Fears US-Russia Reconciliation Could Come at Its Expense (Emil Advaliani, Stimson Center)

China’s Ties with North Korea are in a Ditch, and Therein Lies Opportunity (Choong-Koo Lee, War on the Rocks)

CRANK Call

Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy (gpriddy@cftni.org)

Image: Press office of the Russian Foreign Ministry