CRANK Call | November 2024

CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs).

November 2024 Highlights

North Korea and Russia finalize defense pact as offensive against Kursk looms

North Korea and Russia completed the ratification of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in early November.  Alongside outlining a broad spectrum of defense cooperation, the treaty includes a commitment to mutual defense if attacked. Some South Korean analysts see the Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast as having prompted North Korea to act, as it could be argued to trigger the mutual defense provision to which they were acceding. However, the Ukrainian move could also merely have provided a pretext for Pyongyang’s aid to Moscow.

Despite speculation about an eventual major increase in North Korean troop levels, perhaps to as many as 100,000 North Korean personnel, the number committed seems to have plateaued for now. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh stated on November 18 that the U.S. believes that there are around 11,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk region. Some reports have indicated that North Korean soldiers are being integrated to support Russian units but may be of limited utility due to their lack of Russian language training.

The exchange is significantly increasing North Korea’s access to advanced technologies from Russia. South Korean officials have said that North Korea recently received new Russian anti-aircraft systems to which it had not previously had access.

South Korean observers have also expressed concern that the new alliance could embolden Kim Jong-Un over time. This view suggests that as the DPRK amasses additional arms, technology, and money from Russia, Kim is likely to engage in increasingly provocative behavior. Growing support from Moscow could also reduce Pyongyang’s relative dependence on China and weaken Beijing’s ability to discourage provocative behavior. 

Nuclear-capable bombers from Russia and China prompt South Korean and Japanese intercepts

Russian and Chinese heavy nuclear-capable bombers conducted two days of joint long-range air patrols on November 29-30, this time over the Sea of Japan/East Sea, prompting both Japan and South Korea to send fighter aircraft to make intercepts. In July, a joint Russian-Chinese bomber patrol flew over waters adjacent to Alaska in the North Pacific and the Arctic, prompting U.S. and Canadian fighter intercepts. Russian and Chinese fighter aircraft and a Chinese electronic intelligence aircraft were involved in some parts of the exercise as well. While the Russian and Chinese aircraft did not violate either South Korea’s or Japan’s airspace, South Korea lodged a diplomatic protest with Moscow about their failure to provide notice of the exercise.

Continuing Russian payment troubles?

Some Chinese companies appear to be facing trade and investment challenges in Russia due to U.S. and EU sanctions that limit their ability to clear transactions. For example, a Chinese television manufacturer has had to close a factory it owns near St. Petersburg due to problems with payments for components. Deprived of access to many of its usual suppliers in Europe, Russian firms have been forced to look to China for alternatives, while Chinese companies face no such pressure to seek Russian sourcing amid the payment difficulties. This is clearly giving China the upper hand in the economic relationship.

Trump advisor says U.S. to open dialogue with China about Iranian oil

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), who has been tapped by president-elect Trump as his new National Security Advisor, used surprisingly conciliatory language toward China when he was asked during a CNBC interview on November 27 about how the U.S. would tighten sanctions on Iran. None of this walked back what incoming administration figures have said about a return to “maximum pressure” on Iran. That said, acknowledging the need to open a dialogue with China beforehand could blunt some of the impact on Chinese oil majors and banks if China is willing to compromise. Most oil analysts expect Iranian exports to fall significantly, but not to anywhere near zero, as the U.S. tightens sanctions enforcement. China may aim to use Iranian crude only in independent “teapot” refineries again, with minor banks handling the transactions in yuan, where the trade has expanded a bit beyond that during the recent period, when the Biden administration has soft-pedaled enforcement.

Links

—President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on November 16 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, where Biden publicly urged Xi to dissuade North Korea from further assisting Russia in its war in Ukraine. (Associated Press)

—Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi on November 7 that he considers China an “ally” of Russia and offered strong support for Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. (Reuters)

—U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Arctic Affairs Michael Sfraga said the growing cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic region sends “concerning signals,” specifically citing the “frequency and complexity” of their recent joint military activities. (Reuters)

—The Bank of China is reportedly blocking some yuan transactions from third countries that are suspected of being payments for Russian transshipments. (Newsweek)

—North Korea is estimated to have received one million barrels of Russian oil since March, double the volume it is allowed to receive under United Nations sanctions. (BBC)

—Iranian media commentary on the Chinese and Russian reactions to Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets on October 25 was harshly critical of what was seen as inadequate support for Iran. (Middle East Eye)

—North Korea’s trade with China hit a yearly high in the October data, with the DPRK possibly spending some of the windfall from arms sales to Russia. (NK News)

—Chinese customs officials at the main border crossing in Dandong have stopped issuing permits for “personal items,” a classification that has allowed a substantial informal flow of goods into North Korea. The Chinese move may reflect a cooling of relations. (Daily NK)

Recent Analysis

Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or Deconflict? (Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet, Center for a New American Security)

The United States and the ‘Axis’ of its Enemies: Myths vs. Reality (Eugene Rumer, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Russia’s Fiscal Dependence on China Grows (John C.K. Daly, Jamestown Foundation)

China’s Dilemma Deepen as North Korea Enters Ukraine War (Dr. Carla Freeman, Naiyu Kuo, United States Institute of Peace)

CRANK Perspectives

BRICS and the Beginning of the End of Western Hegemony (PressTV editorial segment)

CRANK Call

Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy (gpriddy@cftni.org)

Image credit: Press Secretary for the President of the Russian Federation (via Wikimedia Commons)